There is no question Governements are addicted to debt. Give people access to a huge credit card limit, and they will spend. Behavioral psychology manifest at a high-level.
Apparently heroin addicts can become so drug dependent their bodies cannot withstand the shock of withdrawal, and failure to continue taking the drug triggers multiple organ failures. I just wonder how apt that analogy is to our governments? debt dependency today. As long as governments think that taking these difficult decisions to end the addiction will be easier in the future than it is today, they will never take the decision “today.” At the very least, there will have to be a sufficiently large bond market “event” to force the issue.
"Off-balance sheet" liabilities include other government promises such as social security, medicare, currency swaps, derivatives, etc.
source:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/just-how-ugly-sovereign-default-truth-how-self-delusions-prevent-recognition-reality?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
You hear the term “peak oil” a lot. Certainly not as much as a few years back when Oil was over $130 a barrel, but it’s still a large portion of American’s expenses, and it’s still an issue of national and personal security.
‘Peak oil’ refers to world-wide petroleum production (supply) reaching a maximum level, then entering terminal decline. For some background on the subject:
Discussions about ‘peak oil’ tend to grind to a halt over two factors:
(a) What ‘type’ of oil in the ground is under discussion, and
(b) What role does oil play in the economy.
In general discussion ‘oil in the ground’ covers a range of things (various grades of heavy to light, easily recovered to difficult to recover, natural to oil sand or shale, sweet to sulfur laden, shallow-on-shore to deep-off-shore, located in politically friendly or secure places to located in more questionable locals etc.). Clearly, oil in the ground in some form will be available for the indefinite future in whatever quantities justify its extraction. Equally clearly, the financial cost, technical difficulty, ecological cost and political difficulties will grow as the world moves from reliance on ‘conventional oil’ (sweet, large pool, close to the surface, on land close to cheap and convenient transportation links in politically secure locations and at locations which don’t pose ecological or other problems) to reliance on oil without an increasing list of these advantages. In this context, “peak” is the threshold at which oil having a particular favourable array of these ‘conventional oil’ advantages falls into declining production and the market must rely on a less advantageous array.
The role of oil extends well beyond transportation and energy issues. It is a major raw material for the production of plastics and other key materials and of fertilizer. Control of the supply of economically affordable oil is the source of economic and political power.
In short, the world faces an ever increasing passing of one peak of oil after another (as more advantageous arrays become unavailable in sufficient volume to meet demand) and this will cause major shifts of political and economic power.
We aren’t running out of oil anytime soon, but we are running out of ‘cheap’ oil.
How does this effect my investments and my commute? Remember, supply is only one side of the equation that is price. Signs show that U.S. oil consumption likely peaked in 2006-2007. Worldwide demand continues to grow, albeit at a slow pace, due to worldwide economic conditions. The short-term picture continues to remain cloudy, but expect a price floor around $60-$65 per barrel. Many unconventional fields aren’t economically feasible under this price, and OPEC-nations have stated that the $60 range is where they will cut output.
So true….
http://xkcd.com/627/
Obama from downtown! YESH!
Universal healthcare if I make this shot
Here are some websites I find credible:
www.finviz.com : Great site that aggregates and presents raw data to help with trading. I like that I can get a quick glance at a chart, fundamental data, and news for a company all on one page.
www.zerohedge.com : Pseudonymous blog about the finincal state of our country. Highly critical of our governement, specifically the fed, while mostly excluding political bias.
thinkorswim.com : trading software. I’m still very novice but I found that thier charting package and options analysis tools are best-in-class.
I’m trying to find a good forum or discussion board to talk with like minded individuals beyond the sites listed above. Any suggestions?
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Cash for Clunkers: The true cost to taxpayers
0 Comments | Posted by Myles Pflum in Finance, gov
In these tough economic times, American tax payers (future and present) shoving out a $4,500 rebate on buying a new car sounds like a reasonable way to stimulate the economy.
But what if that amount was $24,000?
Edmunds.com, who knows about cars and has no obvious incentive to skew results, reports that the net increase in car sales from the $3 billion C4C program was 125,000 vehicles.
Well, it’s in how Edmunds crunched the numbers. A valid way to evaluate the program economically, it says, is to look at how many people purchased cars that otherwise wouldn’t have been bought. The firm says that number is about 125,000 cars. By that measure, the government spent $24,000 to generate each sale of a new car.
For comparison, the average price for a new vehicle in August 2009 was $26,915, minus an average cash rebate of $1,667.
In all, the government spent $3 billion on a program that provided cash toward 690,000 car purchases – about $4,348 per car. That makes 565,000 people who got as much as $4,500 to buy a car they would have bought anyway, according to the Edmunds analysis.
http://features.csmonitor.com/economyrebuild/2009/10/28/report-cash-for-clunkers-was-a-lemon/
We effectively front-loaded all our automobile demand for 2009 and 2010. What are the numbers going to look like in the post-cash-for-clunkers environement? Not very good. If you were going to buy a car within a year, you took advantage of cash for clunkers.
On a positive note, our GDP numbers are up because of it. Also, over half the vehicles sold were made in America, so it did keep some jobs afloat. But Cash for Clunkers is over now. It’s not sustainable.
http://www.cashforclunkersfacts.com/20090805-cash-for-clunkers-sales-data-by-manufacturer/
Don’t forget about all the debt we raked up buying these new vehicles. A majority of new car purchases are financed. We are already a debt laden society. Is encouraging people to go into debt to buy a new ride really a strong governement policy for the future?
Presnetation about DITA:
http://downloadcentre.sdl.com/DITA_Fest_09_Keynote-Learning_from_Experience.pdf
Communication skills are something that many young Americans aren’t taught in high school. The ability to articulate, persuade, instruct, and explain are key to every facet of life. They can help you get a job, get laid, get past security guards, and may even help you get out of a mugging.
I was blessed to have a debate class in high school which taught me how important professional communication is. At that point, I stopped doing homework and started persuading my teachers. I finished High School with a 4.0.
Corporate communication is a unique animal, and is just one component of being an effective communicator. Professional communication has it’s own rules. You must be funny but not offensive, personal but not exclusive, and use phrases like ‘business objectives’, ‘champion’ (as a verb), ‘vertical integration.’ And you should always, always take ‘action items’.
Crank that ROI to 11!
I put together a set of slides that you can use as a template for any corporate presentation. Graphics are included. Just fill in your name and company and your good to go!
http://280slides.com/Viewer/?user=28185&name=Corporate%20Template&fullscreen
